I think Obama could actually win if he ran.
You'd think voters wouldn't vote for him, and they probably wouldn't.
But most minorities, percentage-wise, don't vote. If he centers his campaign around getting those minorities to get out and vote, ("It's our time to be heard, make sure you're heard" type campaign), and he can really get it to move, you'll see the biggest surge of voting the country has ever seen. And it might be enough to win.