i have an idea,
let's ban the only technology that provides a solution to a current requirement or situation before there is a viable alternative to that technology.
but we should push the ban out several years in hopes that the impending ban will motivate further advances in the currently lacking technologies.
this will hopefully make those lacking technologies more viable.
as a side result, the impending ban will stifle advances in the current technology keeping it from being improved upon.
it's just stupid.
______________ Side note:
i watched the Formula E race in NYC in July
46 laps of a 1.22 mile road circuit in Brooklyn NY at Pier 11 and the Brooklyn Cruise Terminal... awesome.
i was excited to see what kind of technologies they would have in that racing environment that could be coming to the consumer level:
rapid charge capability?
quick swap-able batteries?
more effective regenerative power?
just a big ass battery in a lightweight car, and instead of any type of charging or battery changes they literally swapped the entire car halfway through the race.
there is a minimum 47 second pit stop where the driver pulls in, jumps out of one car, gets secured in the new car and then heads back on to the track. (the minimum time is intended to ensure no shortcuts are taken when securing the driver in the new car for the sake of getting them on the track faster)
while the race itself was pretty cool
the technology was pretty lame
it was like saying you are going to Gumball a Tesla, 3000 miles of balls out driving across the country, but every 60 miles or so you have to get in to an entirely new charged car, and repeat that 50 times.
now Formula E is a new series (currently in its 3rd season) , so maybe that technology will be coming some time in the future
or maybe the series will simply die out
but if the tech is not showing up in racing then it is no where near showing up at the consumer level in any realistic way
a lot can and will change in 20 years, but the death of the internal combustion engine has been being touted since the 70s and yet it still reigns supreme.
there are a lot of technologies that keep claiming to be just a few years away that will make mind blowing advancements in things like batteries, charging, and electric motor efficiency, but they never seem to become much more than vaporware.
cold fusion is coming any day now too...
Environmental policies are good and awful. From an OEM standpoint, its great for parts /service business and creates another competitive advantage avenue. Awful part is what Volkswagen is going through, our competitor Navistar did as well. If you bet wrong, invest wrong, or get left behind on technology, the repercussions are endless.
In the grand scheme of things the end user gets hosed in every direction besides environmental impact and even then, there are major impacts still. Costs go up drastically, reliability goes down drastically, and enjoyment/use/power/etc goes down or stays flat. The hardest part is after making the transition the environmental impact is just channel shifted up the supply chain. The push though/regulation/investment will create cleaner channels, and cleaner products for use. Until then Lithium, Nickel, etc are very scarce elements.
It's anti-capitalist. It is not gov'ts job to force demand of one product over another.
I'm a bit of a hippie when it comes to the environment... I'm a fan of recycling and all that, i compost... but this has drastic consequences.
The trickle-down will be tremendous.
gas stations are obsolete - or forced to convert to charging stations.... but who wants to hang out for an hour or so to charge up every 2 blocks?
Gas tank in ground construction companies - out of business
electric line infrastructure, can't support it... brown outs like crazy
more power plants needed... electric rates go up... nuc disasters?
solar farms... wind farms... on a per-car basis, there's not enough to go around.
And what about year 2045.... there will still be 80% bio-fuel cars on the road, but fewer and fewer gas stations around to support them. by 2050, good luck finding gas at a reasonable price. your 10 your old car has 0 value.
landfills pile up with perfecetly good cars.
not junkyards- landfills. the junkyard is obsolete. no one needs those parts ever again.
The sweeping changes are coming one way or another. It'll speed up. Look at what happened to all the folks that tended to horse and buggies? They adopted or got left behind. What's anticapitlistic is keeping those dead businesses afloat with old technology for "capitalism". Consumers will demand the change, even if/when our government takes steps to roll back regulation to support the dead businesses.
While I hate most regulation, there is an important role for it unfortunately. Regulation, when used correctly, is the easiest way to diminish dead loss weight in an economy created by capitalism. Tragedy of the commons y0.
gas stations are obsolete - or forced to convert to charging stations.... but who wants to hang out for an hour or so to charge up every 2 blocks? Every two blocks is being a little ridiculous isnt it? Even the leaf goes farther than that, not to mention the Tesla's.
Gas tank in ground construction companies - out of business They will either go under or adapt, Tesla already has quick swap battery exchanges that are being tested, it's all under ground, seems like a great leeway from one to the other.
electric line infrastructure, can't support it... brown outs like crazy The infrastructures in most areas are in dire need of upgrades/maintenance as it is, this could be a great way to get them to actually build it to what is needed.
more power plants needed... electric rates go up... nuc disasters? Possibly more nuclear plants, can't say that I would be objected to that honestly, TN runs on coal and a few small dams here and there, we could use a transition.
solar farms... wind farms... on a per-car basis, there's not enough to go around. Not yet, this is all stuff that will be added in over the years, you'll see more solar options appear on homes.
And what about year 2045.... there will still be 80% bio-fuel cars on the road, but fewer and fewer gas stations around to support them. by 2050, good luck finding gas at a reasonable price. your 10 your old car has 0 value. that's the point though, make the gas too expensive to compete with other fuels. once it gets to a point though, there will be crazy incentives to get those cars off the road.
landfills pile up with perfecetly good cars. doubt it, recycling plants will boom for at least 2 or 3 decades (completely pulling that number out of my ass)
not junkyards- landfills. the junkyard is obsolete. no one needs those parts ever again. another reason for the increase in recycling plants above.
the kicker ---
The middle east goes broke. WW3 starts. Probably, but korea vs. trump may beat them to it.
Personally, I'm ok with the transition from gas to electric, or whatever other fuel they come up with. The 2040 date is set completely in hopes that it will be a motivating factor to get the technology and infrastructure in place to make the ban effective, but the good part is that in 2030 they will probably push the ban to 2050. So, honestly, I doubt anything major will actually happen.
UK is probably .1% of global pollution. It's not like they're martyrs here. Britain has always been big on emissions though. They have MASSIVE taxes on driving low mpg cars in the city. This only hurts the UK dealerships and customers. It's not like Nissan and Toyota sell a shitload of electric cars there. What companies in the UK make a decent car for the common man?
I can't wait to hear Jeremy Clarkson's response to this. lol